Howard Marks

Marks calls it second-level thinking. First-level thinking is: "This company has good prospects — I''ll buy the stock." Second-level thinking is: "This company has good prospects, but everyone already knows that.

The stock is priced for perfection. I''ll pass." Being right about fundamentals isn''t enough.

You also have to be right about what the market already knows and what the price already reflects.

His other major concept: risk is not volatility. Risk is the probability of permanent loss of capital.

A bond that drops 30% in price isn''t necessarily risky if the underlying company is sound and will pay the debt back. A bond that barely moves but is issued by a company about to default is extremely risky.

He thinks most investors confuse the two, constantly.

Anthony Pompliano

Pompliano is a Bitcoin maximalist, full stop. His thesis is simple: Bitcoin is the only crypto asset worth owning because it has the strongest network, the most decentralization, and the best monetary properties.

He is skeptical of most altcoins. He invests in Bitcoin directly, through Morgan Creek funds, and makes early-stage bets in Bitcoin infrastructure companies.

His audience-building strategy — consistent, daily content, simple arguments, no jargon — is itself a form of investing. He built a media company before most people realized finance media was a distribution asset.

Howard Marks

His core ideas, from The Most Important Thing: understand market cycles — everything is cyclical, including investor sentiment, credit availability, and valuations. Recognise where you are in a cycle and position accordingly.

Control risk obsessively — not because you''re afraid, but because avoiding the big losses is the primary driver of long-term returns. Practice second-level thinking — don''t just ask what''s true, ask what''s already priced in.

And be patient. The best opportunities come during crises, when forced sellers are creating discounts that wouldn''t exist in calmer markets.

Anthony Pompliano

His philosophy in a sentence: Bitcoin is the hardest money ever created, and the dollar is being debased by central banks who print money at will. He argues inflation is a wealth transfer from savers to governments, and Bitcoin is the only asset that protects against it.

He says everyone will eventually figure this out — the only question is whether you figure it out before or after the price is much higher.

Howard Marks

Marks is deeply conservative about the downside. His framework: focus on risk control, not return maximisation.

Superior long-term returns come from avoiding the big losses, not from hitting the biggest wins. This sounds obvious.

Almost no one actually practises it. He has written extensively about how human psychology — overconfidence in good times, panic in bad times — makes sustained risk control incredibly hard.

He''s comfortable in distressed situations that most investors find too ugly to look at. The apparent ugliness is where the value is.

Anthony Pompliano

Pompliano is openly concentrated — at various points he has said more than half his net worth is in Bitcoin. He does not see this as recklessness.

His framework: if Bitcoin fails, the traditional financial system is likely also in serious trouble, so the downside of being concentrated in BTC is no worse than the downside of being concentrated in dollars. He views conventional diversification as spreading risk across assets that are all denominated in the same thing being debased.

He calls diversification "di-worsification" for people who truly understand what they hold.

Howard Marks

He lives in Los Angeles, where Oaktree is based. He is still active as co-chairman and still writing memos — he''s written over 100 since 1990.

He donates meaningfully to Penn and other academic institutions. He gives speeches at conferences and academic events.

He is considerably more understated than many hedge fund managers of comparable success — he''s interested in ideas, not attention. His son Andrew Marks worked in the film industry, which Marks has described as a source of pride regardless of the career choice.

Anthony Pompliano

Pompliano runs his life like he runs his content: consistent, high-volume, no days off. He wakes up early, exercises, posts daily.

He is famously disciplined about time and output — he has said he treats content creation with the same structure as military training. He holds Bitcoin.

He is vocal about not keeping significant cash.

Howard Marks

2008–2009. When the financial crisis hit, high-yield bond markets froze.

Perfectly sound debt was trading at catastrophic discounts because panic selling created forced sellers. Oaktree, which had been raising a distressed debt fund precisely for this type of environment, deployed capital aggressively through the crisis.

Fund VI, raised in 2008, became one of the most successful distressed debt funds in history. The returns were exceptional because the panic-induced discounts were exceptional.

Marks had been writing about exactly this type of opportunity for years. When it arrived, he was ready for it.

Anthony Pompliano

Being early and public on Bitcoin. He was bullish on BTC when it was under $10,000, never backed down through the 2018 bear market, and held through the 2020-2021 run to $69,000.

His Morgan Creek Digital fund was among the first institutional vehicles that allowed pension funds and endowments to gain Bitcoin exposure.

Howard Marks

By his own account, he''s avoided most of the disasters. His framework is explicitly designed to prevent catastrophic errors.

The closest thing to a meaningful mistake: being too early warning about the dot-com bubble — he published a memo in January 2000 laying out why tech valuations were unsustainable. He was right, but the bubble ran for another three months before collapsing.

Being early is expensive. He''s also honest that avoiding spectacular losses sometimes means missing spectacular gains — that''s the trade-off he''s consciously made.

Anthony Pompliano

Being loud enough about Bitcoin that his credibility is permanently attached to its performance. When Bitcoin drops 70%, Pompliano drops with it in public perception — every bear market brings screenshots of his old price predictions.

He has also faced criticism that some of his early crypto venture bets, outside Bitcoin, did not perform.

Howard Marks

Howard Marks grew up in Flushing, Queens. He studied finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and got his MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

He started his career at Citibank, where he ran their bond department and later their convertible securities and high-yield debt portfolios. He moved to TCW Group in Los Angeles in 1985 to manage distressed debt and high-yield bonds.

In 1995, he co-founded Oaktree Capital Management with six colleagues from TCW. The idea: focus specifically on alternative and distressed investments — high-yield bonds, distressed debt, convertible securities, private credit.

Oaktree went public in 2012 and was acquired by Brookfield Asset Management in 2019 for $4.7 billion. Marks stayed on as co-chairman.

Through all of it — from 1990 to today — he was writing the memos.

Anthony Pompliano

Anthony Pompliano served in the U.S. Army, did tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, then came home and built a career in tech.

He worked at Facebook briefly in 2016 — reportedly fired after two weeks for allegedly raising concerns about user metric accuracy. He then co-founded Morgan Creek Digital Assets in 2018, one of the first traditional asset managers to offer crypto funds to institutional investors.

His podcast "The Pomp Podcast" became one of the most downloaded finance shows in the world. He built a Twitter and newsletter following of millions by making simple, direct, bullish arguments for Bitcoin when that was still an edgy position.

Howard Marks

Oaktree Capital Management, co-founded in 1995, manages roughly $170 billion across credit strategies. The firm specialises in high-yield bonds, distressed debt, senior loans, convertible securities, and real estate credit.

Distressed debt, in plain English, works like this: when a company gets into trouble, its bonds get cheap. If the company recovers — or even partially recovers — those bonds can multiply in value.

The skill is telling the difference between a company that''s temporarily distressed and one that''s actually going bankrupt. Marks has been making that call for 50 years.

Oaktree was acquired by Brookfield in 2019 for $4.7 billion — a reasonable indicator that the track record speaks for itself.

Anthony Pompliano

Morgan Creek Digital Assets (co-founder, 2018). The Pomp Podcast / "Best Business Show." Pomp Investments (early-stage venture fund).

Newsletter: "Pomp Letter" (millions of subscribers). Previously: Facebook (briefly), Snapchat (growth team), Earlyshares.

Howard Marks

Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, BS in Finance summa cum laude, Phi Beta Kappa, 1967. University of Chicago Booth School of Business, MBA, 1969.

He has said that Chicago — where the efficient market hypothesis was gospel — taught him exactly what the prevailing wisdom was, which made it easier to know when to disagree with it.

Anthony Pompliano

West Point graduate (Bachelor's in economics). MBA: Babson College, Olin Graduate School of Business.