Howard Marks

Marks calls it second-level thinking. First-level thinking is: "This company has good prospects — I''ll buy the stock." Second-level thinking is: "This company has good prospects, but everyone already knows that.

The stock is priced for perfection. I''ll pass." Being right about fundamentals isn''t enough.

You also have to be right about what the market already knows and what the price already reflects.

His other major concept: risk is not volatility. Risk is the probability of permanent loss of capital.

A bond that drops 30% in price isn''t necessarily risky if the underlying company is sound and will pay the debt back. A bond that barely moves but is issued by a company about to default is extremely risky.

He thinks most investors confuse the two, constantly.

Lark Davis

Davis covers the full crypto market — not just Bitcoin. His content focuses on identifying altcoin opportunities, understanding new blockchain projects, DeFi protocols, and layer-2 ecosystems.

His strategy is higher risk than Bitcoin-only: he looks for early-stage projects with high upside potential and significant downside risk. He has been transparent about both wins and losses in his portfolio.

He advocates dollar-cost averaging into positions and taking profits during bull markets — lessons he admits he learned the hard way during the 2018 bear market.

Howard Marks

His core ideas, from The Most Important Thing: understand market cycles — everything is cyclical, including investor sentiment, credit availability, and valuations. Recognise where you are in a cycle and position accordingly.

Control risk obsessively — not because you''re afraid, but because avoiding the big losses is the primary driver of long-term returns. Practice second-level thinking — don''t just ask what''s true, ask what''s already priced in.

And be patient. The best opportunities come during crises, when forced sellers are creating discounts that wouldn''t exist in calmer markets.

Lark Davis

His philosophy is that crypto represents the biggest wealth transfer opportunity of his generation. He believes in holding Bitcoin as a base position and using a portion of the portfolio for higher-risk altcoin exposure.

He has said his biggest financial lesson was not taking profits during the 2017-2018 bull run — a mistake he actively advises his audience to avoid repeating.

Howard Marks

Marks is deeply conservative about the downside. His framework: focus on risk control, not return maximisation.

Superior long-term returns come from avoiding the big losses, not from hitting the biggest wins. This sounds obvious.

Almost no one actually practises it. He has written extensively about how human psychology — overconfidence in good times, panic in bad times — makes sustained risk control incredibly hard.

He''s comfortable in distressed situations that most investors find too ugly to look at. The apparent ugliness is where the value is.

Lark Davis

Davis has been public about holding altcoins that went to zero and investing in projects that turned out to be fraudulent or simply failed. He does not hide the losses.

His risk management has evolved directly from those mistakes: he now advocates taking partial profits at every major price milestone, maintaining Bitcoin as a core position, and treating altcoins as a speculative sleeve rather than a primary strategy. The lesson he repeats most often from 2018: not taking profits during euphoria is itself a high-risk decision — most people just don't recognize it as one until prices have already collapsed.

Howard Marks

He lives in Los Angeles, where Oaktree is based. He is still active as co-chairman and still writing memos — he''s written over 100 since 1990.

He donates meaningfully to Penn and other academic institutions. He gives speeches at conferences and academic events.

He is considerably more understated than many hedge fund managers of comparable success — he''s interested in ideas, not attention. His son Andrew Marks worked in the film industry, which Marks has described as a source of pride regardless of the career choice.

Lark Davis

Lives in Thailand with low overhead costs. Has spoken about the power of geographic arbitrage — earning in dollars and crypto while living somewhere with a lower cost of living.

He exercises consistently, says a healthy body supports a clear financial mind, and advocates for a simple, mobile lifestyle. Does not flaunt luxury publicly.

Howard Marks

2008–2009. When the financial crisis hit, high-yield bond markets froze.

Perfectly sound debt was trading at catastrophic discounts because panic selling created forced sellers. Oaktree, which had been raising a distressed debt fund precisely for this type of environment, deployed capital aggressively through the crisis.

Fund VI, raised in 2008, became one of the most successful distressed debt funds in history. The returns were exceptional because the panic-induced discounts were exceptional.

Marks had been writing about exactly this type of opportunity for years. When it arrived, he was ready for it.

Lark Davis

Building one of the largest crypto education YouTube channels in the world during the 2020-2021 bull run. His coverage of DeFi and altcoin projects during that period — when those sectors exploded in value — brought him the majority of his audience and income.

His Wealth Mastery community grew substantially during that period.

Howard Marks

By his own account, he''s avoided most of the disasters. His framework is explicitly designed to prevent catastrophic errors.

The closest thing to a meaningful mistake: being too early warning about the dot-com bubble — he published a memo in January 2000 laying out why tech valuations were unsustainable. He was right, but the bubble ran for another three months before collapsing.

Being early is expensive. He''s also honest that avoiding spectacular losses sometimes means missing spectacular gains — that''s the trade-off he''s consciously made.

Lark Davis

In 2021, Davis faced significant controversy when it emerged he had been paid to promote certain crypto projects to his audience without clearly disclosing the payments. He issued an apology and said he had followed what he believed were disclosure norms at the time, but the episode damaged his reputation and became one of the most-cited examples of undisclosed crypto influencer promotions.

He also, like most altcoin-focused analysts, saw his portfolio take brutal losses in the 2022 bear market.

Howard Marks

Howard Marks grew up in Flushing, Queens. He studied finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and got his MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

He started his career at Citibank, where he ran their bond department and later their convertible securities and high-yield debt portfolios. He moved to TCW Group in Los Angeles in 1985 to manage distressed debt and high-yield bonds.

In 1995, he co-founded Oaktree Capital Management with six colleagues from TCW. The idea: focus specifically on alternative and distressed investments — high-yield bonds, distressed debt, convertible securities, private credit.

Oaktree went public in 2012 and was acquired by Brookfield Asset Management in 2019 for $4.7 billion. Marks stayed on as co-chairman.

Through all of it — from 1990 to today — he was writing the memos.

Lark Davis

Lark Davis is a New Zealand-born crypto educator who built his brand primarily on YouTube, starting around 2018. He focuses on cryptocurrency analysis with an emphasis on altcoins, DeFi, and emerging blockchain projects — not just Bitcoin.

His channel "Crypto Lark" grew to over a million subscribers, making him one of the most followed retail crypto educators in the world. He also built a paid subscription community, Wealth Mastery, where he publishes deeper research.

He has lived in Thailand for years, part of a wave of digital nomad crypto educators who operate internationally.

Howard Marks

Oaktree Capital Management, co-founded in 1995, manages roughly $170 billion across credit strategies. The firm specialises in high-yield bonds, distressed debt, senior loans, convertible securities, and real estate credit.

Distressed debt, in plain English, works like this: when a company gets into trouble, its bonds get cheap. If the company recovers — or even partially recovers — those bonds can multiply in value.

The skill is telling the difference between a company that''s temporarily distressed and one that''s actually going bankrupt. Marks has been making that call for 50 years.

Oaktree was acquired by Brookfield in 2019 for $4.7 billion — a reasonable indicator that the track record speaks for itself.

Lark Davis

Crypto Lark YouTube channel (1M+ subscribers). Wealth Mastery (paid research subscription).

Books: "Cryptocurrency Revolution" (authored). Based in Thailand.

Howard Marks

Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, BS in Finance summa cum laude, Phi Beta Kappa, 1967. University of Chicago Booth School of Business, MBA, 1969.

He has said that Chicago — where the efficient market hypothesis was gospel — taught him exactly what the prevailing wisdom was, which made it easier to know when to disagree with it.

Lark Davis

Largely self-taught in crypto and financial markets. No formal finance credentials.