ARTHUR HAYES
Co-founding BitMEX, pioneering crypto derivatives, and writing the most entertaining macro essays in crypto.
Arthur Hayes built BitMEX — the exchange that let degenerate traders bet 100x leverage on Bitcoin — and it processed over $1 trillion in trades before the US government came knocking. He pleaded guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act, paid a $10 million fine, and served six months of house arrest. Then he came back, started writing macro essays that read like Hunter S. Thompson discovered monetary policy, and became the most influential voice in crypto markets. The man literally went from federal charges to "must-read analyst" in two years.
Net Worth
$1 billion
Nationality
American
Time Horizon
Medium-Term
Risk Appetite
10 / 10
Net Worth Context
- · Still a billionaire — just the quiet kind at the end of the table.
CAREER & BACKGROUND
Born in 1985 in Buffalo, New York. Grew up in Detroit in a working-class family.
Got into the University of Pennsylvania — Wharton School, no less. Worked at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong as an equity derivatives trader after graduation.
Got laid off during post-2008 restructuring and decided to stay in Hong Kong. Discovered Bitcoin in 2013 and saw immediately that crypto needed a proper derivatives exchange.
Co-founded BitMEX in 2014 with Ben Delo and Samuel Reed. BitMEX became the most liquid crypto derivatives exchange in the world by 2018, processing billions in daily volume.
The CFTC charged BitMEX in October 2020 for operating an unregistered trading platform and violating anti-money laundering rules. Hayes left Hong Kong, eventually surrendered in Hawaii in 2022.
Pleaded guilty to one count of violating the Bank Secrecy Act. Paid $10 million.
Got six months of house arrest. Pivoted to writing a blog called "Crypto Trader Digest" — long-form macro essays about monetary policy, geopolitics, and crypto that became the most-read content in the industry.
Now runs Maelstrom, a family office investing in DeFi and crypto infrastructure.
COMPANIES & ROLES
BitMEX — co-founder and former CEO. The exchange pioneered perpetual swap contracts, which are now the most traded instrument in all of crypto.
At peak, BitMEX had over $10 billion in daily volume with a team of fewer than 100 people. 100x Club — Hayes's venture/angel investment vehicle for early-stage crypto projects.
Maelstrom — his family office, which invests in DeFi protocols, Layer 1 chains, and crypto infrastructure. The fund has backed projects across the entire crypto stack.
INVESTING STYLE & PHILOSOPHY
Arthur Hayes is a macro-first investor who happens to operate in crypto. He does not pick coins based on technology or team.
He reads central bank balance sheets, watches the Bank of Japan's yield curve control, tracks US Treasury issuance schedules, and then decides which direction crypto is going. His core thesis is simple: governments will always print money, fiat currencies will always debase, and Bitcoin is the escape valve.
He sizes positions aggressively and uses leverage — the same leverage he built BitMEX to provide. His investment horizon is medium-term, typically 6-18 months, aligned with macro cycles.
He is willing to go heavily into cash during bear markets. He is not a "HODL forever" person — he trades the cycles.
THE PLAYBOOK
Risk Approach
Extreme. This is a man who built a 100x leverage exchange.
His personal risk tolerance matches the product he created. He takes large, concentrated positions based on macro conviction and is comfortable watching them swing wildly.
He grew up poor, made hundreds of millions, got criminally charged, and came back. The risk tolerance is not theoretical — it has been stress-tested by the actual US Department of Justice.
Money Habits
Lives well but not ostentatiously by crypto billionaire standards. Based in Singapore currently.
Spends significant time writing — his blog posts are often 5,000+ words and clearly take days to produce. He is a serious skier and has talked about spending winters in Japan and Switzerland.
Does not appear to own mega-yachts or private islands. His biggest visible "expense" is his time — he puts enormous effort into his writing and macro analysis, which is unusual for someone who does not need to work.
BIGGEST WIN
Building BitMEX from zero to the most dominant crypto exchange in the world in four years. By 2018, BitMEX was doing more daily volume than most traditional exchanges, with insane margins.
The company was reportedly generating over $1 million per day in fees at its peak. Hayes and his co-founders built one of the most profitable companies in the history of finance per employee.
The perpetual swap contract — BitMEX's signature product — is now the single most traded financial instrument in all of crypto. Every major exchange copied it.
Hayes did not invent leverage. He invented the specific instrument that the entire crypto derivatives market now runs on.
BIGGEST MISTAKE
Not getting out before the regulators arrived. The CFTC investigation was not a surprise — the US government had been making noise about unregistered crypto exchanges for years.
Other founders relocated, restructured, or shut down US access properly. Hayes and BitMEX did implement a VPN check, but it was widely seen as insufficient.
The $10 million fine and criminal charge could have been avoided with better compliance infrastructure. Hayes has acknowledged this, saying he underestimated how seriously the US government would pursue offshore crypto exchanges.
The reputational damage also cost him — BitMEX went from #1 to a distant also-ran while he was dealing with legal issues.
FINANCIAL PHILOSOPHY
Hayes's philosophy is rooted in macro economics and monetary history. He believes the current fiat monetary system is fundamentally broken — that central banks create boom-bust cycles through money printing, and that Bitcoin is the first technology that lets individuals opt out.
He does not think crypto replaces the financial system. He thinks it exists alongside it as a pressure release valve.
His essays frequently reference the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, and the People's Bank of China. He sees all three as trapped — unable to stop printing without crashing their economies.
His bottom line: own Bitcoin because the money printers cannot be turned off.
FAMILY & PERSONAL LIFE
Private about his personal life. Not publicly married.
No known children. Grew up in Detroit in a working-class African-American family.
His mother was reportedly a social worker. He has talked about growing up without money and how that shaped his risk tolerance — "when you start with nothing, losing everything just means going back to the beginning."
EDUCATION
Bachelor's degree in Economics from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania — one of the top business schools in the world. He has credited his Wharton education with giving him the derivatives knowledge that made BitMEX possible, and his Deutsche Bank trading desk experience with teaching him how markets actually work.
BOOKS & RESOURCES
Hayes frequently references Lords of Finance by Liaquat Ahamed
About how central bankers caused the Great Depression
About Weimar Germany's hyperinflation
Another one he cites regularly. He reads Bank of Japan policy statements for fun. His macro framework draws heavily from Austrian economics, though he would probably resist being labeled an Austrian economist. His blog itself — the "Crypto Trader Digest" — is honestly his best recommendation. It is free, it is long, and it is the most entertaining way to learn macro in crypto
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QUOTES (6)
The money printer goes brrr. That is not a meme. That is monetary policy. And Bitcoin is the only asset that cannot be printed.
I built an exchange that did a trillion dollars in volume. Then the US government charged me with a crime. Then I paid a fine and came back. In crypto, that is a Tuesday.
Everyone reads the Fed minutes. Nobody reads the Bank of Japan policy statements. That is where the real action is. Japan is the canary in the coal mine for every fiat currency.
I grew up in Detroit with nothing. I went to Wharton, worked at Deutsche Bank, got fired, discovered Bitcoin, and built a billion-dollar company. America is wild.
Perpetual swaps are the single most traded instrument in all of crypto. We invented that at BitMEX. Every exchange that copied it is paying us a compliment.
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