MACRO

I've never used valuation to time the market. It's a good tool for knowing what you own, but a terrible tool for knowing when to buy or sell.

Liquidity matters more than earnings in the short run. The Fed is the most important variable in markets. Always.

The market is going to do what it is going to do. Your job is to position correctly before it does it, then get out of the way.

The Federal Reserve is the most important institution in the world for investors to understand. They set the price of money. Everything else follows.

The Exponential Age is not a prediction. It is already happening. Most people just have not noticed yet.

We are all living in a debt supercycle that has one inevitable conclusion. The question is what you hold when it resolves.

Bitcoin is a fiscal and monetary Swiss Army knife.

Most monetary systems fail not from a single event but from the slow accumulation of bad incentives.

I don't have a crystal ball. Nobody does. But I can figure out what's cheap and what's not, and I can figure out what governments will do when their backs are against the wall.

The seeds of the next crisis are always planted in the solution to the last one.

Gold is the one asset that retains value when everything else is being debased.

I don't care what the Fed is doing. I care what the company is doing. If the business is worth fifty dollars and you can buy it for thirty, that is the analysis. Everything else is noise.

China is on a treadmill to hell. They have to keep running faster just to stay in place.

Macro is about understanding the forces that move the world. Everything else follows from that.

In Argentina, inflation was 100%. Currency collapsed. Economy in crisis. Our stock went up. Because when your currency is worthless, e-commerce and digital payments become essential, not optional.

Everyone reads the Fed minutes. Nobody reads the Bank of Japan policy statements. That is where the real action is. Japan is the canary in the coal mine for every fiat currency.

When the yield curve inverts, when real rates go negative, when governments start doing yield curve control — that is when you buy Bitcoin. The signal is always in the bond market.

When interest rates went from 0% to 5%, our revenue model went from "how do we survive?" to "how do we manage all this cash?" The same reserves that earned us nothing in 2021 earned us $1.5 billion in 2023. Macro matters.

I own gold AND the dollar. Everyone says you cannot do both. I say you have to do both.

The dollar milkshake theory is simple. Every country is printing money. But the dollar is the straw that sucks up global liquidity.

Everyone thinks the dollar is going to crash. But when you owe trillions in dollar-denominated debt you need dollars. Demand is structural.

A strong dollar is the wrecking ball for the global financial system. And the wrecking ball is swinging.

Most macro commentators confuse what they want to happen with what is actually going to happen. Those are two very different things.

Markets move in cycles. If you understand where you are in the cycle you understand almost everything you need to know.

Central banks create the very crises they claim to be solving. Every intervention creates a bigger distortion.

I capitulated. I admitted I was wrong about the recovery. Then the market punished me for being honest. Macro investing is a cruel teacher.

The US government cannot service its debt without the Fed monetizing bonds. That is not a prediction. That is arithmetic.

The forest for the trees. That is the name of my firm and my entire investment philosophy. Zoom out.

Everyone asks when the dollar will crash. The better question is when will the Fed have to choose between saving bonds and saving the dollar.

The New Normal means lower growth lower returns and higher uncertainty. Get used to it or get left behind.

The Great Moderation is over. Prepare for a decade of higher inflation higher rates and lower returns. This is the new reality.

Megathreats. Climate change. AI displacement. Deglobalization. Debt crises. The world faces more simultaneous risks than at any time since the 1930s.

We are leaving 40 years of free markets and entering an era of government-directed credit.

Governments always choose inflation over default. Always. Without exception in modern history.

Central banks are losing control of money creation to governments. That changes everything about asset allocation.

Study the 1940s. That's my answer to almost every question about where we're heading.

Macro investing is about having a view and the courage to act on it. Most people have the view. Few have the courage.

Bitcoin is the biggest macro trade of our lifetime.

Rising interest rates hurt us. But rental demand goes up when mortgages go up. The thesis still holds.

Rising interest rates made people question rental yields. We doubled down — when mortgages are expensive, people rent.

When everyone is buying, I want to know what they're not seeing. When everyone is selling, I want to know what they're missing.

Brexit was the most obvious trade I've ever seen. Sterling was overvalued. The polls were wrong. I bet everything.

The best emerging market trades happen when the politics change and the money hasn't moved yet.

George Soros used intuition to trade macro. We systematized that intuition. Both approaches work. Ours scales better.

The pound was in the wrong place. The politics were unsustainable. Everyone in the market knew it. We just had to wait for the moment.

Central banks move markets more than earnings, more than GDP, more than anything else. Understand the central bank and you understand the trade.

Inflation isn't transitory when governments are printing money like it's a competition. That was obvious to anyone who'd read a history book.

Central banks move markets more than any CEO, any earnings report, or any geopolitical event. That’s where the alpha is.

Every business cycle reaches its peak. The investor who ignores this will be reminded by the market.

Gold is not an investment. It is insurance against monetary disorder.

The stock market is not the economy. But over long periods, the two tend to rhyme.

You don't need to predict the economy. You need to measure it, track it, and respond to what it tells you.

The 1987 crash was not a surprise to anyone who was watching the right indicators.

If rates stay low, it is because growth will be low.

If inflation does come down as quickly as central banks predict, it'll be because they get really lucky.

The medium-to-long-term prognosis with respect to US inflation is murkier.

Coupled with expansive fiscal policies, this is likely to result in steeper yield curves.

One is listen to the markets, a second one is politics and policy matters and the third one is risk control.

Japanification.

In this environment, I can absolutely see many parts, if not all of that, reversing.

All of that leads to an environment in which there's a fair amount of muddiness and a lack of clarity around where the economy is headed.

A tech winter? Not in tropical Indonesia.