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The way to win is to find situations where the odds are in your favor and then bet accordingly — not too much, not too little.
investing— A Man for All Markets, 2017
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I started with a question: can blackjack be beaten? I answered it. Then I asked the same question about the stock market.
thinking— Interview, The Tim Ferriss Show, 2018
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The Kelly Criterion tells you how much to bet when you have an edge. It also tells you never to bet so much that you risk ruin. Ruin is the only thing you can't recover from.
risk— A Man for All Markets, 2017
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When I looked at Madoff's numbers, I knew immediately they were fabricated. The returns were too smooth. No strategy produces returns like that in the real world.
fraud-detection— A Man for All Markets, 2017
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Most investors would be better off in index funds. I know how hard it is to beat the market consistently — I did it, and it was the hardest thing I've ever done.
advice— Interview, Motley Fool, 2019