Howard Marks

Marks calls it second-level thinking. First-level thinking is: "This company has good prospects — I''ll buy the stock." Second-level thinking is: "This company has good prospects, but everyone already knows that.

The stock is priced for perfection. I''ll pass." Being right about fundamentals isn''t enough.

You also have to be right about what the market already knows and what the price already reflects.

His other major concept: risk is not volatility. Risk is the probability of permanent loss of capital.

A bond that drops 30% in price isn''t necessarily risky if the underlying company is sound and will pay the debt back. A bond that barely moves but is issued by a company about to default is extremely risky.

He thinks most investors confuse the two, constantly.

Vikas Oberoi

Vikas Oberoi concentrates capital ruthlessly. He focuses on a small number of premium micro-markets in Mumbai, builds the highest-quality product possible in each, and refuses to chase volume.

He has said no to more deals than he has said yes to — and that selectivity is his biggest competitive advantage.

Howard Marks

His core ideas, from The Most Important Thing: understand market cycles — everything is cyclical, including investor sentiment, credit availability, and valuations. Recognise where you are in a cycle and position accordingly.

Control risk obsessively — not because you''re afraid, but because avoiding the big losses is the primary driver of long-term returns. Practice second-level thinking — don''t just ask what''s true, ask what''s already priced in.

And be patient. The best opportunities come during crises, when forced sellers are creating discounts that wouldn''t exist in calmer markets.

Vikas Oberoi

Quality is the cheapest long-term strategy. A premium product in the right location never needs to discount, never needs aggressive sales tactics, and builds its own demand through reputation.

Howard Marks

Marks is deeply conservative about the downside. His framework: focus on risk control, not return maximisation.

Superior long-term returns come from avoiding the big losses, not from hitting the biggest wins. This sounds obvious.

Almost no one actually practises it. He has written extensively about how human psychology — overconfidence in good times, panic in bad times — makes sustained risk control incredibly hard.

He''s comfortable in distressed situations that most investors find too ugly to look at. The apparent ugliness is where the value is.

Vikas Oberoi

Lower than most developers in his peer group. Oberoi Realty carries minimal debt relative to its asset base, avoids pre-launch sales pressure, and does not stretch into unfamiliar markets.

The trade-off is slower growth, but the downside protection is exceptional.

Howard Marks

He lives in Los Angeles, where Oaktree is based. He is still active as co-chairman and still writing memos — he''s written over 100 since 1990.

He donates meaningfully to Penn and other academic institutions. He gives speeches at conferences and academic events.

He is considerably more understated than many hedge fund managers of comparable success — he''s interested in ideas, not attention. His son Andrew is a technology investor, and a long argument between the two of them about growth stocks became the basis of one of his best-known memos, Something of Value, in 2021.

Vikas Oberoi

Conservative on leverage, aggressive on product quality. Oberoi famously invests heavily in finishing quality — materials, lobbies, landscaping — where competitors cut back.

The premium pricing fully absorbs that extra cost and then some.

Howard Marks

2008–2009. When the financial crisis hit, high-yield bond markets froze.

Perfectly sound debt was trading at catastrophic discounts because panic selling created forced sellers. Oaktree, which had been raising a distressed debt fund precisely for this type of environment, deployed capital aggressively through the crisis.

Fund VI, raised in 2008, became one of the most successful distressed debt funds in history. The returns were exceptional because the panic-induced discounts were exceptional.

Marks had been writing about exactly this type of opportunity for years. When it arrived, he was ready for it.

Vikas Oberoi

Oberoi Garden City, Goregaon. Transforming a stretch of land in Mumbai's western suburbs into an integrated development that now includes luxury residential towers, two commercial office towers (Commerz I and II), the Westin hotel and Oberoi Mall.

Goldman Sachs runs its Indian operations from Commerz. That is the definition of value creation.

Howard Marks

By his own account, he''s avoided most of the disasters. His framework is explicitly designed to prevent catastrophic errors.

The closest thing to a meaningful mistake: being too early warning about the dot-com bubble — he published a memo in January 2000 laying out why tech valuations were unsustainable. He was right, but the bubble ran for another three months before collapsing.

Being early is expensive. He''s also honest that avoiding spectacular losses sometimes means missing spectacular gains — that''s the trade-off he''s consciously made.

Vikas Oberoi

Moving slowly into the Worli and South Mumbai luxury market. Competitors like Lodha and Piramal Realty captured the ultra-prime segment while Oberoi was consolidating in Goregaon.

The Sky City launch in Worli is a course correction, but it came years after the market window first opened.

Howard Marks

Howard Marks grew up in Flushing, Queens. He studied finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and got his MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

He started his career at Citibank, where he ran their bond department and later their convertible securities and high-yield debt portfolios. He moved to TCW Group in Los Angeles in 1985 to manage distressed debt and high-yield bonds.

In 1995, he co-founded Oaktree Capital Management with six colleagues from TCW. The idea: focus specifically on alternative and distressed investments — high-yield bonds, distressed debt, convertible securities, private credit.

Oaktree went public in 2012 and was acquired by Brookfield Asset Management in 2019 for $4.7 billion. Marks stayed on as co-chairman.

Through all of it — from 1990 to today — he was writing the memos.

Vikas Oberoi

[ "Took Oberoi Realty public on BSE and NSE in October 2010 — the first luxury-focused real estate IPO in India", "Developed Oberoi Garden City in Goregaon, a 100-acre integrated development with residential, commercial, hotel and retail components", "Built Commerz commercial towers in Goregaon, housing offices for Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and other multinationals", "Delivered Oberoi Exquisite and Oberoi Esquire — among Mumbai's most sought-after luxury residential towers", "Expanded into Worli with ultra-luxury Sky City project, targeting the top 1% of Mumbai buyers", "Oberoi Realty's market cap crossed ₹40,000 crore by 2024, making it one of India's most valuable listed real estate firms", "Maintained a near-zero legacy debt posture through disciplined balance sheet management" ]

Howard Marks

Oaktree Capital Management, co-founded in 1995, manages roughly $170 billion across credit strategies. The firm specialises in high-yield bonds, distressed debt, senior loans, convertible securities, and real estate credit.

Distressed debt, in plain English, works like this: when a company gets into trouble, its bonds get cheap. If the company recovers — or even partially recovers — those bonds can multiply in value.

The skill is telling the difference between a company that''s temporarily distressed and one that''s actually going bankrupt. Marks has been making that call for 50 years.

Oaktree was acquired by Brookfield in 2019 for $4.7 billion — a reasonable indicator that the track record speaks for itself.

Vikas Oberoi

[ {"name": "Oberoi Realty", "role": "Chairman and Managing Director", "year": 1998, "description": "India's leading luxury real estate developer, listed on BSE and NSE (ticker: OBEROI), with projects concentrated in Mumbai"}, {"name": "Oberoi Mall", "role": "Developer and Owner", "year": 2008, "description": "Premium mall in Goregaon, Mumbai, anchored by luxury brands and part of the Oberoi Garden City integrated development"} ]

Howard Marks

Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, BS in Finance summa cum laude, Phi Beta Kappa, 1967. University of Chicago Booth School of Business, MBA, 1969.

He has said that Chicago — where the efficient market hypothesis was gospel — taught him exactly what the prevailing wisdom was, which made it easier to know when to disagree with it.

Vikas Oberoi

Commerce graduate from the University of Mumbai. Learned the real estate business from the ground up within the family enterprise before taking charge of operations.