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Central banks move markets more than earnings, more than GDP, more than anything else. Understand the central bank and you understand the trade.
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The best trades are the ones where you see it six months before everyone else and have the conviction to size it properly.
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Models tell you what should happen. Markets tell you what is happening. When they disagree, trust the market.
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I'd rather take a big loss on a trade I understood than a small loss on one I didn't.
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Inflation isn't transitory when governments are printing money like it's a competition. That was obvious to anyone who'd read a history book.