PATTERNS

Past behavior of a market is a very poor predictor of short-term behavior. But over many, many samples, patterns emerge. That is what we exploit.

Markets have personality. They have tendencies. Momentum tends to continue. Overextension tends to revert. These patterns exist because people exist.

I have one edge: I have been watching these patterns for forty years. The market keeps making the same moves. I just have to be patient enough to wait for them.

History never repeats itself. But it does rhyme in ways that expose the permanent features of human behavior.