BRENT JOHNSON
CEO of Santiago Capital and creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory — the most viral macro thesis of the 2020s
Brent Johnson is not a billionaire fund manager. He runs a small wealth management firm in Puerto Rico. But his Dollar Milkshake Theory — the idea that the US dollar will strengthen dramatically as global liquidity gets sucked into dollar-denominated assets like a milkshake through a straw — became arguably the most discussed macro thesis on finance Twitter since 2018. He bet against virtually every macro commentator calling for dollar weakness and has been largely right. The milkshake metaphor alone was worth more than most MBA programs.
Net Worth
$50 million
Nationality
American
Time Horizon
Medium-Term
Risk Appetite
7 / 10
CAREER & BACKGROUND
CEO of Santiago Capital, a wealth management firm based in Puerto Rico. Developed the Dollar Milkshake Theory around 2018, which went viral across financial media and podcasts.
The thesis: as global central banks print money and the world runs on dollar-denominated debt, the dollar will paradoxically strengthen as foreign capital flows into US assets — creating a crisis for emerging markets and dollar-indebted nations. Has appeared on Real Vision, Macro Voices, Wealthion, and dozens of financial podcasts.
The theory correctly anticipated the dollar strength of 2021-2023 when DXY hit 20-year highs. Previously worked in traditional finance including roles at Credit Suisse.
Relocated to Puerto Rico for tax optimization under Act 60.
COMPANIES & ROLES
Santiago Capital (CEO), formerly Credit Suisse
INVESTING STYLE & PHILOSOPHY
Johnson is a macro investor and dollar bull. He combines top-down macroeconomic analysis with currency positioning.
He is long the US dollar against most global currencies and believes the dollar's reserve currency status creates structural demand that most analysts underestimate. He also holds gold as a hedge — an unusual combination since gold and the dollar typically move inversely.
He calls this "holding both oars."
THE PLAYBOOK
Risk Approach
Moderate to high. Johnson is making big macro calls about currencies, which are among the most difficult asset classes to predict.
He is comfortable being a lone voice against consensus (most macro commentators have been dollar bears for years). The concentration of his thesis on dollar strength means being wrong would be painful both financially and reputationally.
Money Habits
Relocated to Puerto Rico under Act 60 for tax benefits — a move many finance professionals have made. Lives a relatively modest lifestyle compared to hedge fund managers.
Active on Twitter and the podcast circuit. His income comes primarily from Santiago Capital's management fees rather than massive personal trading gains.
BIGGEST WIN
The Dollar Milkshake Theory itself. The thesis went from an obscure podcast talking point to one of the most debated macro frameworks in finance.
When the DXY dollar index hit 20-year highs in 2022, Johnson looked prescient. The theory gave him a platform, a brand, and credibility that money cannot buy.
BIGGEST MISTAKE
The dollar has had periods of weakness that tested the thesis, and critics argue the Milkshake Theory is unfalsifiable — if the dollar goes up, the milkshake is working. If it goes down, it just has not started yet.
Johnson has not had a single career-defining loss, but the nature of his thesis means the final verdict is still out.
FINANCIAL PHILOSOPHY
Johnson believes the global monetary system is structurally fragile and that the dollar's dominance is a feature, not a bug. He thinks most macro commentators mistake what should happen (dollar decline due to debt) with what will happen (dollar strength due to structural demand).
He advocates for owning dollars and dollar-denominated assets while also holding gold as insurance.
FAMILY & PERSONAL LIFE
Private about family life. Based in Puerto Rico.
EDUCATION
Background in traditional finance. Worked at Baker Avenue Asset Management and Credit Suisse before founding Santiago Capital.
Does not publicly emphasize academic credentials — his brand is built on the strength of his thesis and his ability to explain it clearly.
BOOKS & RESOURCES
The Dollar Trap by Eswar Prasad, Exorbitant Privilege by Barry Eichengreen. Johnson is a voracious consumer of macro research and frequently recommends Real Vision and Macro Voices podcasts
As an Amazon Associate, Netfigo earns from qualifying purchases. Book links above may be affiliate links.
QUOTES (6)
Everyone thinks the dollar is going to crash. But when you owe trillions in dollar-denominated debt you need dollars. Demand is structural.
A strong dollar is the wrecking ball for the global financial system. And the wrecking ball is swinging.
The dollar milkshake theory is simple. Every country is printing money. But the dollar is the straw that sucks up global liquidity.
Most macro commentators confuse what they want to happen with what is actually going to happen. Those are two very different things.
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