PLANB
Anonymous quantitative analyst who created the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model — the most famous (and debated) Bitcoin price prediction framework.
PlanB is an anonymous Dutch institutional investor who created the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model in 2019 and immediately became the most cited — and most controversial — analyst in crypto. The model predicted Bitcoin would hit $100,000 by the end of 2021. It did not. But the S2F framework has still been remarkably accurate over long time periods, and PlanB has over 1.8 million Twitter followers hanging on every chart he posts. He is either a quantitative genius who found Bitcoin's pricing equation or the most sophisticated horoscope writer in financial history.
Net Worth
Undisclosed
Nationality
Dutch
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Risk Appetite
8 / 10
CAREER & BACKGROUND
PlanB (pseudonym) published the Stock-to-Flow model for Bitcoin in March 2019 in an article titled "Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity." The model adapts the stock-to-flow ratio used for precious metals (gold, silver) to Bitcoin, arguing that Bitcoin's price is fundamentally driven by its programmatic scarcity — specifically, the halving events that cut new supply in half every four years. The model showed a strong statistical correlation (R² of 0.95) between Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and its market price.
In late 2019, he published S2FX (Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model), which incorporated gold and silver for cross-asset comparison. PlanB claims to be a Dutch institutional investor with a background in quantitative finance and law.
He has roughly 1.8 million followers on X (Twitter). His S2F model predicted Bitcoin at $100,000 by December 2021.
Bitcoin peaked at $69,000 in November 2021 before crashing. Critics argue the model is curve-fitting.
Supporters argue it captures the fundamental scarcity dynamic of Bitcoin over longer timeframes.
COMPANIES & ROLES
Anonymous quantitative analyst. Creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model.
1.8M+ followers on X. Claims background in institutional investing and quantitative finance in the Netherlands.
Published S2F and S2FX models.
INVESTING STYLE & PHILOSOPHY
Quantitative, scarcity-based Bitcoin analysis. PlanB's approach applies traditional commodity pricing models to Bitcoin.
He treats Bitcoin as a scarce commodity whose price is determined by its stock-to-flow ratio — the relationship between existing supply and new production.
THE PLAYBOOK
Risk Approach
High in conviction, moderate in practice. PlanB is extremely bullish on Bitcoin long-term based on his model.
However, he has also acknowledged that the model has confidence intervals and that short-term deviations are expected.
Money Habits
Anonymous. Lives in the Netherlands.
Claims to work in institutional finance. Nothing is known about personal spending or lifestyle.
BIGGEST WIN
The S2F model's long-term accuracy. Over multi-year periods, the model has tracked Bitcoin's price with remarkable consistency.
The framework gave Bitcoin investors a quantitative thesis during periods of extreme uncertainty.
BIGGEST MISTAKE
The $100K by December 2021 prediction. Bitcoin peaked at $69,000, not $100,000.
Critics used the miss to argue the entire model was broken. PlanB has maintained that the model works over longer time horizons and that individual cycle predictions have confidence intervals.
FINANCIAL PHILOSOPHY
Scarcity drives value. PlanB's core philosophy is simple: things that are hard to produce are valuable.
Bitcoin's supply is mathematically fixed and programmatically decreasing. Therefore, its price should increase over time as demand grows against fixed supply.
FAMILY & PERSONAL LIFE
Anonymous. Dutch.
Claims to work in institutional investing. Nothing else is publicly confirmed.
EDUCATION
Claims a background in quantitative finance and law. Specific institutions and degrees are not publicly known due to anonymity.
BOOKS & RESOURCES
The scarcity-based Bitcoin thesis that aligns with S2F
Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity by PlanB
His own foundational paper
The hyperinflation history that motivates Bitcoin maximalists
As an Amazon Associate, Netfigo earns from qualifying purchases. Book links above may be affiliate links.
QUOTES (5)
Bitcoin's price is driven by scarcity. The Stock-to-Flow model captures this relationship with an R-squared of 0.95.
I stay anonymous because the ideas should stand on their own. It shouldn't matter who I am. It should matter whether the math is right.
The model predicted $100K by end of 2021. Bitcoin hit $69K. Close, but the miss taught me about the limits of any single model.
Gold has a stock-to-flow ratio of 62. Bitcoin's will eventually exceed 100. The math says that matters.
NETFIGO SCORE
Proprietary 5-dimension investor rating
Risk Appetite
Contrarian Index
Track Record
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Head-to-Head
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