We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.
AI will be smarter than any single human by next year and smarter than all humans combined by 2029. That is either the best thing or the worst thing that will ever happen. Probably both.
Inflation is not transitory. I said that in 2021 when the Fed was still using that word. It was obvious to anyone reading the data.
I predicted Trump would win in 2016 when everyone said it was impossible. I was reading the data. They were reading Twitter.
Fashion resale will be bigger than fast fashion within a decade. Gen Z already gets it. The rest of the market will follow.
Inflation is not transitory. I said it in 2021. The Fed said otherwise. One of us was right.
I predicted the 2008 crisis in 2006. They called me Dr. Doom. Then the world collapsed. They called me Dr. Right.
The Great Moderation is over. Prepare for a decade of higher inflation higher rates and lower returns. This is the new reality.
People said nobody would watch other people play video games. Turns out billions of hours per month worth of people disagree.
I predicted the September 2019 repo crisis months before it happened. The data was screaming. Nobody was listening.
The model predicted $100K by end of 2021. Bitcoin hit $69K. Close, but the miss taught me about the limits of any single model.