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When my model's indicators turn negative, I turn negative. It's not complicated — you just have to trust the data.
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The 1987 crash was not a surprise to anyone who was watching the right indicators.
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Emotion is the enemy of good market analysis. The model removes the emotion.
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Market crashes don't come out of nowhere. The warning signs were there in 1987. The question is whether you're looking for them.
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A quantitative model is only as good as the discipline to follow it when it tells you something uncomfortable.
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You don't need to predict the economy. You need to measure it, track it, and respond to what it tells you.