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The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know.
forecasting— The Black Swan, 2007
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The 1987 crash was not a surprise to anyone who was watching the right indicators.
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Market crashes don't come out of nowhere. The warning signs were there in 1987. The question is whether you're looking for them.
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You don't need to predict the economy. You need to measure it, track it, and respond to what it tells you.
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During crises, markets panic, and investor forecasts become too correlated in predicting worse to come. But the humble investor knows that these dire predictions are unlikely to come to pass, as unlikely as the fever dreams that characterize stock manias.