Howard Marks

Marks calls it second-level thinking. First-level thinking is: "This company has good prospects — I''ll buy the stock." Second-level thinking is: "This company has good prospects, but everyone already knows that.

The stock is priced for perfection. I''ll pass." Being right about fundamentals isn''t enough.

You also have to be right about what the market already knows and what the price already reflects.

His other major concept: risk is not volatility. Risk is the probability of permanent loss of capital.

A bond that drops 30% in price isn''t necessarily risky if the underlying company is sound and will pay the debt back. A bond that barely moves but is issued by a company about to default is extremely risky.

He thinks most investors confuse the two, constantly.

Bill Nygren

Classic large-cap value. Nygren buys businesses trading significantly below his estimate of intrinsic value — typically at least a 40% discount.

He focuses on companies with strong management teams, high free cash flow generation, and the ability to allocate capital intelligently. He runs concentrated portfolios (20-30 stocks) and is willing to hold positions for 3-5+ years.

He is a contrarian by default — his best ideas are usually in sectors the market hates.

Howard Marks

His core ideas, from The Most Important Thing: understand market cycles — everything is cyclical, including investor sentiment, credit availability, and valuations. Recognise where you are in a cycle and position accordingly.

Control risk obsessively — not because you''re afraid, but because avoiding the big losses is the primary driver of long-term returns. Practice second-level thinking — don''t just ask what''s true, ask what''s already priced in.

And be patient. The best opportunities come during crises, when forced sellers are creating discounts that wouldn''t exist in calmer markets.

Bill Nygren

Nygren believes the market is generally efficient but occasionally misprices individual businesses, especially during periods of fear or sector-wide pessimism. He thinks like a business buyer, not a stock trader — asking "what would a rational private buyer pay for this entire company?" He considers management quality and skill at investing company money as important as the financial statements.

Howard Marks

Marks is deeply conservative about the downside. His framework: focus on risk control, not return maximisation.

Superior long-term returns come from avoiding the big losses, not from hitting the biggest wins. This sounds obvious.

Almost no one actually practises it. He has written extensively about how human psychology — overconfidence in good times, panic in bad times — makes sustained risk control incredibly hard.

He''s comfortable in distressed situations that most investors find too ugly to look at. The apparent ugliness is where the value is.

Bill Nygren

Moderate. Nygren runs concentrated portfolios which adds stock-specific risk, but he focuses on large-cap, established businesses with strong balance sheets.

He is not swinging at biotech startups or crypto. The risk is being early and looking wrong for extended periods while waiting for the market to recognize value.

Howard Marks

He lives in Los Angeles, where Oaktree is based. He is still active as co-chairman and still writing memos — he''s written over 100 since 1990.

He donates meaningfully to Penn and other academic institutions. He gives speeches at conferences and academic events.

He is considerably more understated than many hedge fund managers of comparable success — he''s interested in ideas, not attention. His son Andrew is a technology investor, and a long argument between the two of them about growth stocks became the basis of one of his best-known memos, Something of Value, in 2021.

Bill Nygren

Low-profile lifestyle. Based in Chicago.

Nygren does not seek media attention and rarely appears on financial TV. He writes detailed quarterly commentaries for Oakmark shareholders that are some of the best free investing education available.

He lets his long-term performance record speak for itself.

Howard Marks

2008–2009. When the financial crisis hit, high-yield bond markets froze.

Perfectly sound debt was trading at catastrophic discounts because panic selling created forced sellers. Oaktree, which had been raising a distressed debt fund precisely for this type of environment, deployed capital aggressively through the crisis.

Fund VI, raised in 2008, became one of the most successful distressed debt funds in history. The returns were exceptional because the panic-induced discounts were exceptional.

Marks had been writing about exactly this type of opportunity for years. When it arrived, he was ready for it.

Bill Nygren

His consistency over nearly three decades. While many value managers have stumbled during the growth-dominated 2010s, Nygren adapted his approach to include "modern value" — companies like Alphabet and Meta that trade at low multiples relative to their growth rates.

His willingness to evolve his definition of value without abandoning the discipline has kept Oakmark relevant.

Howard Marks

By his own account, he''s avoided most of the disasters. His framework is explicitly designed to prevent catastrophic errors.

The closest thing to a meaningful mistake: being too early warning about the dot-com bubble — he published a memo in January 2000 laying out why tech valuations were unsustainable. He was right, but the bubble ran for another three months before collapsing.

Being early is expensive. He''s also honest that avoiding spectacular losses sometimes means missing spectacular gains — that''s the trade-off he''s consciously made.

Bill Nygren

Holding financial stocks through the 2008 financial crisis. Oakmark Fund was down significantly in 2008 as bank and insurance stocks cratered.

While the long-term recovery proved him right on many of those holdings, the drawdown was painful for investors who redeemed at the bottom.

Howard Marks

Howard Marks grew up in Flushing, Queens. He studied finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and got his MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

He started his career at Citibank, where he ran their bond department and later their convertible securities and high-yield debt portfolios. He moved to TCW Group in Los Angeles in 1985 to manage distressed debt and high-yield bonds.

In 1995, he co-founded Oaktree Capital Management with six colleagues from TCW. The idea: focus specifically on alternative and distressed investments — high-yield bonds, distressed debt, convertible securities, private credit.

Oaktree went public in 2012 and was acquired by Brookfield Asset Management in 2019 for $4.7 billion. Marks stayed on as co-chairman.

Through all of it — from 1990 to today — he was writing the memos.

Bill Nygren

Joined Harris Associates (parent of Oakmark Funds) in 1983. Became lead portfolio manager of the Oakmark Fund in 2000.

Lead manager of Oakmark Select Fund since 1996 and Oakmark Global Select since 2006. Oakmark Select Fund has returned over 11% annually since 1996 inception.

Manages over $20 billion across Oakmark strategies. Named Morningstar Domestic Stock Fund Manager of the Year in 2001.

Known for buying out-of-favor large-cap value stocks and holding them for years. Has consistently argued that the market overreacts to short-term problems and undervalues franchises with durable competitive advantages.

Howard Marks

Oaktree Capital Management, co-founded in 1995, manages roughly $170 billion across credit strategies. The firm specialises in high-yield bonds, distressed debt, senior loans, convertible securities, and real estate credit.

Distressed debt, in plain English, works like this: when a company gets into trouble, its bonds get cheap. If the company recovers — or even partially recovers — those bonds can multiply in value.

The skill is telling the difference between a company that''s temporarily distressed and one that''s actually going bankrupt. Marks has been making that call for 50 years.

Oaktree was acquired by Brookfield in 2019 for $4.7 billion — a reasonable indicator that the track record speaks for itself.

Bill Nygren

Oakmark Funds (lead portfolio manager), Harris Associates (partner)

Howard Marks

Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, BS in Finance summa cum laude, Phi Beta Kappa, 1967. University of Chicago Booth School of Business, MBA, 1969.

He has said that Chicago — where the efficient market hypothesis was gospel — taught him exactly what the prevailing wisdom was, which made it easier to know when to disagree with it.

Bill Nygren

CFA charterholder. MBA from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Undergraduate degree from the University of Minnesota. Has spent his entire career at Harris Associates — over 40 years at one firm.