Every great trade starts with a great setup. The setup does not guarantee a win. It guarantees the probability is in your favor.
Short-term trading is about probability, not certainty. If you are looking for certainty, go buy index funds. If you want to trade, learn to be comfortable being wrong often and right more.
Every decision is a probability. Every trade is a bet. The only question is whether the odds are in your favor.
Trading isn't about being right on any single trade. It's about having a positive expected value across thousands of trades.
The casino doesn't win every hand. But over a million hands, the house edge is unbeatable. That's my approach.
You don't need to be right most of the time. You need to be right 50.75% of the time across millions of trades.
You make your money by analyzing the probability and the payoff. If the math is right, the outcome takes care of itself.
Without a command of probability theory, you are just a gambler in the dark.