VALUATION

I don't short because I hate the company. I short because I believe the stock is overvalued relative to reality.

I've never used valuation to time the market. It's a good tool for knowing what you own, but a terrible tool for knowing when to buy or sell.

Conventional valuation methods were built for the industrial age. They do not apply to exponential-growth technology platforms.

If you can't build a simple model for why a stock is worth buying, you're gambling, not investing.

Every model is wrong. Some models are useful. The goal isn't perfection — it's being roughly right.

Going from $46 billion to $6.7 billion in one year teaches you things that no business school ever could.

WeWork was a real estate company that somehow convinced Silicon Valley it was a tech company. The S-1 was the moment the spell broke.

Walmart paid $16 billion for a company that had never made a profit. They weren't buying our P&L. They were buying access to 1.4 billion consumers.

We went from 30 employees to a $13.3 billion valuation in under a year. The highs were unreal. The correction was also unreal. Both experiences teach you something important about building in crypto.

A LeBron James dunk sold for $208,000 as a digital clip. People called it insane. But a physical LeBron rookie card sold for $5.2 million and nobody blinked. Digital collectibles aren't crazier than physical ones — they're just newer.

Our valuation went from $10 billion to $2.7 billion. That's painful. But we're still the third-largest hotel chain in the world by room count. The company is real. The valuation was the part that wasn't.