“
The Fed is destroying the commercial real estate market. They raised rates faster than any time in history and then act surprised when buildings lose 40 percent of their value. This is not a mystery. It is math.
“
When interest rates went from 0% to 5%, our revenue model went from "how do we survive?" to "how do we manage all this cash?" The same reserves that earned us nothing in 2021 earned us $1.5 billion in 2023. Macro matters.
“
If rates stay low, it is because growth will be low.
“
But with global debt issuance still extremely elevated, we anticipate further weakness in long-end bonds and steeper yield curves.