You do not need to predict direction to make money in options. You just need to be right about volatility being overstated. That is a much easier bet.
If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks.
Our stock went from $300 to $4. Then back to $150. If you sold at $4, I understand. If you held, you believed in what we were building more than the market did.
Our market cap went from $4 billion to $200 billion in three years. Then back to $25 billion. The rollercoaster didn't change the business. The business was always the same. The market just stopped paying for growth.
Our stock went from 15 to 370 to 40 and back to 100. If you cannot handle that volatility you should not own growth stocks.
From $25 billion market cap to $700 million. One clinical trial result changed everything.
We do not view volatility as risk. Risk is the probability of a permanent loss of capital.
The market has taught me to continually stay the course even though I do believe that prices of businesses in public markets and, maybe, even in private equity, fluctuate and that volatility is much higher than the actual long term value of a business.
Stablecoins are really interesting and really important to this ecosystem to hedge against that volatility.