CYCLES

Everyone says the next crisis will be different. It never is.

In crypto, the people who survive the winters are the ones who build the next bull run.

The market went from "you're insane for betting on digital collectibles" to "you're a genius" to "you're insane" again in about 18 months. Building in crypto is not for people who need external validation.

Markets move in cycles. If you understand where you are in the cycle you understand almost everything you need to know.

The most dangerous phrase in investing is 'this time is different.' It is never different. Only the details change.

My net worth dropped 25 billion dollars in 2008. I did not sell a single share. You cannot panic in a cyclical business.

Software cannot protect you from a freight recession. When there is nothing to carry the algorithm does not matter.

I've made money and I've lost money. The trick is making sure you're still in the game when the next opportunity comes.

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.

Commodity cycles are brutal. The people who survive them — and win — are the ones who buy when everyone is selling.

Shipping cycles are predictable. The timing is not. So you buy and wait.

Industries do not die. They restructure. Someone always picks up the pieces.

The best time to buy a ship is when shipping companies are selling theirs for scrap.

In commodities, the best time to buy is when nobody wants to. The worst time to buy is when everyone does.