CRISIS

Everyone says the next crisis will be different. It never is.

Hell is coming. If you don't believe me now, you will in a few weeks.

Funds are safe.

We went from a company that was going to IPO to a company that was fighting for its life in the span of about four to six weeks.

We didn't restrict trading because we wanted to. We restricted trading because our clearinghouse demanded three billion dollars in collateral that we didn't have.

I would do anything short of an illegal act to keep this company going.

In March 2020, we went from hiring mode to war mode. We onboarded 300,000 shoppers in 30 days. I didn't sleep for a week.

SVB collapsed and 10,000 startups panicked about their money. Mercury gained more customers in that one week than in any quarter before. We didn't celebrate. We just made sure the wires went through.

I don't invest in ideas. I invest in brands that have survived at least one crisis. If a company can survive near-death, it can survive anything. That's when I buy.

When FTX collapsed and SOL went from $260 to $8, I thought — either we're dead or this is the greatest buying opportunity ever. The technology hadn't changed. Only the price had.

When Silicon Valley Bank failed on a Friday and we had $3.3 billion stuck there, USDC depegged to 87 cents. Those were the longest 48 hours of my life. The government backstop on Sunday saved us — and taught us to never concentrate reserves again.

When the stock hit $1.19 and everyone wrote our obituary, I invested my own money and told my team: we are not dying. We will find a way. Six months later, we secured $1 billion from Hefei. Persistence is not optional in this business.

BMW canceling their $2 billion order was the moment I knew we were in serious trouble. When your anchor customer walks away, the dominoes start falling. Trust in manufacturing is earned one cell at a time.

I know the Zoom call was handled badly. I know. But the company was dying and I had to act.

The RBI shut down our payments bank. It was the worst day of my professional life. But Paytm is bigger than one license.

I predicted the 2008 crisis in 2006. They called me Dr. Doom. Then the world collapsed. They called me Dr. Right.

We faced an unprecedented situation in January 2021. We made the decision to restrict buying to protect the firm and our customers.

The most important thing I learned during the financial crisis was to hope for the best and plan for the worst.

I was in the room when LTCM nearly destroyed the global financial system. I learned that nothing is as safe as it looks.

Distressed markets offer the best risk-adjusted returns. When companies are in crisis, assets sell at fire-sale prices.

The recall nearly destroyed us. Product safety is now the first conversation in every meeting, not the last.

I made 50% in 2008 by shorting banks everyone said were safe. The consensus was wrong. It usually is.

We went from $10 billion to zero in about two weeks. That's not a drawdown. That's an extinction event.

SARS shut down offline retail in 2003. I moved my business online. The worst crisis became the best opportunity.

The ignition switch recall was the worst moment of my career. But it taught me that transparency is the only policy that works in a crisis.

Every leader gets tested. 9/11 was my test on day four. I learned more in that first week than in the previous decade.

Liquidity is the one thing you can't buy when you actually need it.

In a crisis, the only thing that matters is liquidity. You can be right about every position and still go bankrupt if you can't meet margin calls.

At Farallon, I learned that the best investments are in crisis situations where everyone else is running away.

Every financial crisis creates more inventory for people like us. We’re the cleanup crew.

We should be prepared for the worst and strive for the best. Huawei will survive any crisis.

COVID almost killed us. But you know what? If you survive something that was supposed to destroy you, you come back stronger.

COVID destroyed our revenue overnight. Zero classes. Zero bookings. We laid off more than half the company. It was the worst day of my career.

When COVID closed every studio in the world, our customers couldn't pay their bills. We couldn't charge them either. The entire industry nearly collapsed.

We will do whatever it takes to deliver the homes we promised. That commitment does not change with the market.

Every crisis we went through — 1998, 2008, 2014 — TechnoNIKOL came out stronger. You learn to love what others run from.

The difference between a company that survives and one that doesn't is often one decision made at the right time.

Leadership in a crisis means making decisions with incomplete information. You cannot wait for perfect data.

It is only when you are calm in a crisis can you find a solution.

We're deeply sorry for the impact that we've caused to customers, to travelers, to anyone affected by this, including our company.

You've got to survive, you thrive later, but first you got to survive.